Harris Leads Trump by 6 Points Nationally Before Democratic National Convention
Vice President Kamala Harris has a sizable lead over former President Donald Trump, 49% - 43% among likely voters; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 7 percent support, and Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Chase Oliver receive less than one percent support each, according to an Outward Intelligence poll of likely voters in the United States released today.
Democrats (90% - 5%) and Republicans (89% - 5%) equally support their candidates, while Independents skew to the Vice President by 8 points (45% for Harris, vs 37% for Trump).
There is are sizable gaps of support among audiences:
Gender: Women back Harris 53% - 40% (+13 points), while men back Trump 46% - 45% (+2 points).
Race/Ethnicity: Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics support Harris by 64, 26, and 15 points, respectively. Whites support Trump by 4 points.
Urbanicity: Urban and Suburban areas back Harris by 23 and 13 points, respectively, while Rural areas back Trump by almost 30 points.
Generation: All generations back Harris except for Millennials, which support Trump by 1 point.
Harris Lead over Trump in the full field of candidates among different audiences. Anything above the x-axis shows audiences where Harris is over-performing vs. all likely voters, while anything below the x-axis is where the Vice President underperforms. Audiences that are blue or red reflect a statistically significant difference vs. all likely voters.
In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.
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This survey was conducted August 18-22, 2024 using an online sample of 1,867 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study.
Sample was collected using nested quotas that reflect the most recent U.S. census estimates for age, gender, income, race/ethnicity, and region. After data collection, sample was weighted to U.S. census estimates for gender, age, race/ethnicity, income, educational attainment, and political affiliation using an iterative proportional fitting (raking) method to ensure representativeness.
This poll is funded entirely by Outward Intelligence.
For additional information please email hello@outwardintelligence.com
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