The Presidential Race Remains Stable; Harris +6

State of the Race

Vice President Kamala Harris retains her 6 point lead over former President Donald Trump, 50% - 44% among likely voters; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 5% support, and Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Chase Oliver receive less than one percent support each, according to an Outward Intelligence poll of likely voters in the United States released today.

Screenshot above is from the Outward Intelligence Brand Tracking platform. In both the head-to-head and full field results, undecided voters are asked to choose a specific candidate - the chart above includes these leaners.

Over Time

Relative to the prior week’s poll, the field remains stable, with slight decreases in Undecided and Kennedy voters as they shift support to Harris or Trump.

Screenshot above is from the Outward Intelligence Brand Tracking platform. This chart shows the week over week comparision of the full field of results for candidates with 1% or more support along with undecided voters

Full Field vs. Forced Selection

When forced to select between either Former President Trump or Vice President Harris, Kennedy supporters tend to skew towards Trump, while Undecideds skew to Harris.

• Kennedy: 59% Trump - 41% Harris (Trump +18 pts)

• Stein/West/Oliver: 48% Trump - 52% Harris (Harris +4 pts)

• Undecided: 43% Trump - 57% Harris (Harris +14 pts)

Screenshot above is from the Outward Intelligence Brand Tracking platform. This analysis is based on evaluating who respondents picked between the full field of candidates and a head to head match-up.

Voter Issues

The economy is the most important issue to all Likely Voters, though there are significant differences between Trump and Harris supporters.

• Likely Voters: Economy (67%), Social Programs (e.g., Social Security, Medicare) (57%), Immigration (57%), Democracy/Voting Rights (56%), Healthcare Access/Costs (54%)

• Trump Voters: Economy (74%), Immigration (73%), Fiscal Responsibility (57%), Public Safety (57%), Social Programs (50%)

• Harris Voters: Social Programs (64%), Democracy/Voting Rights (64%), Reproductive Policy (63%), Healthcare Access/Costs (63%), Economy (61%)

Screenshot above is from the Outward Intelligence Brand Tracking platform. The percentage of likely voters selecting 'Extemely Important' or 'Fairly Important' by the candidate they are supporting.

• Methodology

  This survey was conducted August 18-22, 2024 using an online sample of 1,867 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study.

  Sample was collected using nested quotas that reflect the most recent U.S. census estimates for age, gender, income, race/ethnicity, and region. After data collection, sample was weighted to U.S. census estimates for gender, age, race/ethnicity, income, educational attainment, and political affiliation using an iterative proportional fitting (raking) method to ensure representativeness.

  This poll is funded entirely by Outward Intelligence.

  For additional information please email hello@outwardintelligence.com

• About Outward Intelligence

  Founded in 2021, Outward Intelligence is a leader in delivering high-quality, actionable research in real time. Our mission is to make cutting-edge research accessible to businesses of all sizes, combining the customization and insight of a consultancy with the efficiency of a tech platform.

  Our diverse team of researchers, data scientists, and strategists works with a wide range of clients, from Fortune 500 companies to innovative startups, providing them with the tools they need to make informed decisions quickly. We offer agile, customizable survey solutions that allow clients to tailor their research to specific needs, ensuring that they can react swiftly to market changes and emerging trends.

Harris Leads Trump by 6 Points Nationally Before Democratic National Convention

Vice President Kamala Harris has a sizable lead over former President Donald Trump, 49% - 43% among likely voters; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 7 percent support, and Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Chase Oliver receive less than one percent support each, according to an Outward Intelligence poll of likely voters in the United States released today.

Democrats (90% - 5%) and Republicans (89% - 5%) equally support their candidates, while Independents skew to the Vice President by 8 points (45% for Harris, vs 37% for Trump).

There is are sizable gaps of support among audiences:

• Gender: Women back Harris 53% - 40% (+13 points), while men back Trump 46% - 45% (+2 points).

• Race/Ethnicity: Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics support Harris by 64, 26, and 15 points, respectively. Whites support Trump by 4 points.

• Urbanicity: Urban and Suburban areas back Harris by 23 and 13 points, respectively, while Rural areas back Trump by almost 30 points.

• Generation: All generations back Harris except for Millennials, which support Trump by 1 point.

View fullsize

Harris Lead over Trump in the full field of candidates among different audiences. Anything above the x-axis shows audiences where Harris is over-performing vs. all likely voters, while anything below the x-axis is where the Vice President underperforms. Audiences that are blue or red reflect a statistically significant difference vs. all likely voters.

In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

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• Methodology

  This survey was conducted August 18-22, 2024 using an online sample of 1,867 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study.

  Sample was collected using nested quotas that reflect the most recent U.S. census estimates for age, gender, income, race/ethnicity, and region. After data collection, sample was weighted to U.S. census estimates for gender, age, race/ethnicity, income, educational attainment, and political affiliation using an iterative proportional fitting (raking) method to ensure representativeness.

  This poll is funded entirely by Outward Intelligence.

  For additional information please email hello@outwardintelligence.com

• About Outward Intelligence

  Founded in 2021, Outward Intelligence is a leader in delivering high-quality, actionable research in real time. Our mission is to make cutting-edge research accessible to businesses of all sizes, combining the customization and insight of a consultancy with the efficiency of a tech platform.

  Our diverse team of researchers, data scientists, and strategists works with a wide range of clients, from Fortune 500 companies to innovative startups, providing them with the tools they need to make informed decisions quickly. We offer agile, customizable survey solutions that allow clients to tailor their research to specific needs, ensuring that they can react swiftly to market changes and emerging trends.